Price action in the crude complex was muted yesterday due to calm geopolitical headlines. There has been a noticeable shift in rhetoric in the Middle East towards cooperation and ceasefire. During this conflict, the market’s typical response has been to fade ceasefire talks, but it’s crucial to acknowledge that they are indeed happening.
Overnight, price action has been more robust, with WTI Crude Oil futures increasing by 1.27 to 68.43 [+1.82%] following reports that OPEC+ might delay oil output hikes. This aligns with Saudi Arabia’s inclination to balance the market, as they have demonstrated their willingness to do so. Although the report remains unconfirmed, it is a development worth monitoring.
Bloomberg provides the following estimates for today’s EIA report [in thousand bbls]: Crude Oil: +1,805, Gasoline: +600, Distillates: -973. Last night’s API report showed the following [in thousand bbls]: Crude Oil: -600, Gasoline: -300, Distillates: -1,500. If today’s EIA report mirrors the API report with draws in all three categories, a moderately bullish price reaction is anticipated.
WTI Crude Oil futures tested key resistance levels…
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