Financial Market Analysis: Feeder Cattle and Lean Hogs

Feeder Cattle Futures Analysis: In January, feeder cattle futures experienced a failure at our pivot pocket, specifically within the range of 246.82-247.60, which kept the market intact. This failure led to a decline in prices, reaching our 3-star support pocket from 242.75-243.77. This area is crucial for the market; if it fails to hold on a closing basis, it could trigger additional technical selling pressure, potentially pushing prices down to 239.62-240.15. Resistance levels are noted at 249.85-250.80* and 253.075-253.90, with the pivot point at 246.82-247.60, and support levels at 242.75-243.77 and 239.62-240.15.
Seasonal Tendency Update: Historical price averages for January futures over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year timeframes are presented below. The chart indicates that November tends to be a volatile and indecisive month for price trends.


Lean Hogs Analysis: Lean hogs have continued to reach new contract highs, with the RSI at 76.17, marking the most overbought level in the contract’s history. Given the funds’ positioning and low volatility, the options market appears attractive for a potential counter-trend setup with limited risk. For personalized strategy discussions, please contact the trade desk. Resistance is at 85.45**, with the pivot at 84.30-83.65, and support at 82.05-82.27 and 80.90-81.20*.


Commitment of Traders: Funds are nearing a record net long position, with Friday’s report showing a net long of 92,646 futures/options contracts.


Volatility Update: The CME CVOL for lean hogs remains near multi-year lows, making options an appealing choice for those seeking a limited risk contrarian trade.


Seasonal Tendency Update: Historical price averages for February futures over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year timeframes are provided below.


Stay ahead of the market by subscribing to our daily Livestock Roundup for exclusive insights into Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, and Lean Hogs. Gain access to proprietary trading levels and actionable market biases delivered straight to your inbox every day.


Futures trading carries substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on reliable information from trade and statistical services, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Advice is subject to change without notice and does not ensure profitable trades. All trading decisions are made by the account holder. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Blue Line Futures is an NFA member, subject to regulatory oversight and examinations, but the NFA does not oversee underlying or spot virtual currency products, transactions, or exchanges, custodians, or markets.
When evaluating the potential of a trading strategy, it’s crucial to assess whether it aligns with your financial situation.


No claim is made that any trading account will achieve profits or losses similar to those displayed in hypothetical scenarios.


In reality, there are often significant discrepancies between hypothetical performance results and the actual outcomes of a trading program.


One limitation of hypothetical performance results is their preparation, which is typically done with the advantage of hindsight.


Hypothetical trading does not entail financial risk, and thus, it cannot fully account for the impact of financial risk in real trading.


For instance, the capacity to endure losses or the commitment to a trading program despite losses are critical factors that can negatively influence actual trading results.


Moreover, there are numerous other factors related to the markets or the execution of specific trading programs that cannot be fully captured in hypothetical performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual trading outcomes.



Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *